Global goods trade likely posted a record fall in the second quarter but a partial uptick in trade and output are expected in the third quarter, the World Trade Organization said Wednesday.
The Goods Trade Barometer, a real-time gauge of trends in global trade, fell 18.6 point from last year to 84.5 in the second quarter, the lowest on record since the series began in 2007.
All of the barometer’s component indices remained well below trend, with many registering historic lows. Indices for automotive products and air freight were by far the worst on record since 2007.
A reading below 100 suggests below trend growth in global goods trade. The latest score and June statistics indicated that the volume of merchandise trade this year would contract by 13 percent compared to 2019.
In June, WTO economists warned that the heavy economic toll of the covid-19 pandemic signaled that the projections for a strong, V-shaped trade rebound in 2021 may prove overly optimistic. An L-shaped recovery was a real prospect as uncertainty remained elevated.
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