Australia’s leading index remained in deep negative territory in July but the index appeared to have bottomed out in April, Westpac said Wednesday.
The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to -4.37 percent in July from -4.43 percent in June.
The economic contraction in Victoria caused by the hard lockdown following the renewed virus outbreak will offset the ongoing recovery in other states, said Westpac.
Wespac expects economic growth to be flat in the September quarter before lifting by 2.8 percent in the December quarter on the assumption that Victoria moves through Stage 4 to Stage 2 and the other states avoid ‘second wave’ outbreaks.
Looking over the six months since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the index still showed a large, broad-based weakening.
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