Downward Revision Confirms Recession Fears For Japan

Japan’s gross domestic product was bumped down to 2.2 percent on year in the first quarter of 2020, the Cabinet Office said in Monday’s final reading - placing the country firmly in recession.

Analysts had expected GDP to revised up to -2.1 percent following last month’s preliminary reading that had suggested a yearly drop of 3.4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP was revised to -0.6 percent - missing forecasts for -0.5 percent following the preliminary reading of 0.9 percent.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, GDP was down 1.9 percent on quarter and an upwardly revised 7.2 percent on year (originally -7.3 percent).

Capex was up 1.9 percent on quarter following the 4.8 percent drop in the previous three months - while the price index gained 0.9 percent on year, down from 1.2 percent in Q4.

External demand sank 0.2 percent on quarter after gaining 0.5 percent in the three months prior, while private consumption fell 0.8 percent on quarter after dropping 2.9 percent in Q4.

Also on Monday:
• The Ministry of Finance said that Japan had a current account surplus of 262.7 billion yen in April, down 84.2 percent on year. That missed expectations for a surplus of 480 billion yen following the 1,917.0 billion yen surplus in March.

The trade balance reflected a deficit of 966.5 billion yen following the 103.1 billion yen surplus in the previous month. Exports were down 23.0 percent on year at 4,909.0 trillion yen, while imports sank an annual 9.5 percent to 5,875.6 trillion yen.

The capital account showed a deficit of 11.4 billion yen, while the financial account saw a shortfall of 949.0 billion yen.

• The Bank of Japan said that the value of overall bank lending in Japan was up 4.8 percent on year in May, coming in at 562.546 trillion yen. That far surpassed expectations for an increase of 3.2 percent following the downwardly revised 2.9 percent gain in April (originally 3.0 percent).

Excluding trusts, bank lending jumped an annual 5.1 percent to 491.468 trillion yen - up from the 3.1 percent yearly gain in the previous month.

Lending from trusts gained 2.7 percent on year 70 71.077 trillion yen - up from the 1.6 percent gain a month earlier. Lending from foreign banks advanced 12.2 percent to 3.301 trillion yen, slowing from the 25.6 percent spike in April.

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